Behind the Deepening Crisis with Iran: the Real Story Versus the Cover Story

by Mark H Gaffney

Recently, President Obama imposed new sanctions on Iran which
according to reports have been very effective, causing a sudden major
devaluation of Iran's currency. The Iranians correctly understand that
they are under attack, and have threatened to respond by closing the
strait of Hormuz, through which a large percentage of oil from the
Mideast flows to the global economy.

If the crisis deepens and Iran makes good on its threat to close
Hormuz, there is little doubt that the US will intervene to reopen the
strait. This will lead to a shooting war for which Iran will be
blamed, even though the recent US sanctions were tantamount to overt
aggression.

I believe the US will exploit the situation to attack Iran's nuclear
facilities. But, even more importantly, the US will target Iran's
conventional missiles. Indeed, I believe this is the real reason for
US sanctions in the first place, and for the buildup of tensions in
recent days. Despite public perceptions, and all the rhetoric about
nukes, the present crisis has nothing to do with Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program. In my opinion, that is just a cover story.

The real issue is the fact that Iran has upgraded its medium range
conventionally-armed missiles with GPS technology, making its missiles
much more accurate. This means Iran can now target Israel's own
nuclear, bio and chemical weapons stockpiles, located inside Israel,
as well as the Dimona nuclear reactor.

In short, Iran has achieved a conventional deterrent to Israel.
Therefore, statements by Iranian officials that Iran has no nuclear
weapons program are in my view probably correct. Presently, Iran does
not need nukes to deter Israel. It can do so with its GPS-guided
medium range missiles. The Israelis are no doubt gnashing their teeth
over this, because they now find themselves threatened by their own
WMD stockpiles, and by their own nuclear reactors, especially Dimona,
all of which have become targets.

A few direct hits by Iran could cause a toxic plume, killing thousands
of Israelis. A worst case might signal the end of the Jewish state.

It is important to realize that Iran would never launch a pre-emptive
strike on Israel because the Iranians know that the US/Israeli
response would be devastating. However, if Iran comes under attack
first, all bets are off. Iran will defend itself. A counter attack on
Israel cannot be ruled out because Iranian leaders understand clearly
(even if the American people do not) that the crisis has been
manufactured, on Israel's behalf.

From the Israeli standpoint, the present Iranian deterrent (though
conventional) is simply unacceptable. Israel's military strategists
have always insisted on total freedom of movement. This is why Israel
refused a US offer many years ago to sign a defense pact with the US.
Such a treaty would have limited Israel's freedom of movement, and
this was unacceptable. Israel's leaders preferred to remain
independent. Israel has always insisted on the "freedom" to
intimidate its neighbors, whenever and howsoever it chooses. Iran's
conventional missiles now curtail that "freedom." Israeli officials
probably worry, for example, that Iran's conventional missiles would
limit its freedom to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon, in a future
conflict. Hezbollah is closely allied with Tehran.

I believe the present crisis has been manufactured to create the
pretext for a US air campaign to take out Iran's conventional missile
sites. The US will also target Iran's nuclear facilities, but the
primary target will be Iran's conventional missiles. The US will be
doing Israel's bidding. The Zionist tail will be wagging the servile
US dog.

Obviously, you can't generate public support for such a bombing
campaign, on Israel's behalf. Hence the cover story about nukes and
the alleged Iranian threat to wipe Israel off the map, all of which is
untrue but very effective propaganda nonetheless.

The problem for the US is that depriving Iran of its conventional
deterrent will not be easy to accomplish. Indeed, it will be even more
difficult than taking out all of Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran's
conventional missiles are probably dispersed widely. If they come
under attack, the purpose of the air campaign will be transparently
obvious to the Iranian leadership. Faced with the prospect of losing
their deterrent, the Mullahs may well decide to fire their
conventional missiles. If they do and manage some direct hits on
Israel's nuclear-bio-and chemical weapons stockpiles, the ensuing
disaster will prompt an Israeli response. Israel may even resort to
the Samson Option, and attack Iran with nukes. Words cannot describe
the horrific scale of such an outcome. Unfortunately, it is all too
possible.

Early in the war, US naval forces in the Gulf will also come under
attack. No mistake, Iran has enough anti-ship cruise missiles to pose
a grave threat to the US naval presence in the Gulf.

Thousands of US sailors are now in harm's way, and at risk.

We must rally to prevent such a war. Peace activists must now marshal
every asset for peace that we possess. The American people need to
know the truth. This is a phony crisis. Yet the danger is very real.
Now is the time to speak out with all of our strength. Tomorrow could
be too late.


Mark H Gaffney’s forthcoming book, Black 9/11, will be released this
winter by Trineday Press.